What is China's growth potential?
| What is the growth potential of China's economy? -- One of the questions and answers on China's economy during the two sessions
At the time of the National two sessions, China's economy has attracted much attention. Last year, the Chinese economy on the whole picked up and turned positive, but some foreign media kept calling for China's economic potential to "peak" and growth to "peak".
Has China's economy really peaked?
"GDP growth of about 5%", the government work report submitted for deliberation on the 5th, showed the expected target for the New Year, and the expected target of economic growth last year is the same, which is a strong response to the "peak theory".
Perspective growth target: "around 5%" show enterprise
In the face of a more complex and severe external environment and the multiple difficulties in the domestic economy, why do we still set the growth target at around 5%?
The report on the work of the government explains that it has taken into account the need to promote employment and increase income, prevent and defuse risks, and is consistent with the 14th Five-Year Plan and the goal of basically realizing modernization, and has also taken into account the potential for economic growth and supporting conditions.
"An economic growth rate of around 5 percent is a goal that can be achieved through hard work, which shows the proactive and energetic state of the Chinese government." Zhou Li 'an, director of the School of Economics and Management at Peking University, said that this goal is conducive to boosting confidence, guiding expectations, and better building consensus on development.
The growth target is an important guideline for national economic development. The reporter found that from 2003 to 2023, in addition to the special years such as the outbreak of epidemics, China did not set specific targets for economic growth, and the rest of the years have set targets, and better achieved the task of development.
In recent years, the Chinese economy has not been smooth sailing, but has overcome difficulties all the way.
The SARS epidemic in 2003, the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the international financial crisis, and the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020... Despite the trials and hardships, China has not only failed to become the "next collapsing economy" said by foreign media, but has pushed ahead, maintained sustained economic growth, and injected impetus into the world economy.
The talk of downplaying China has repeatedly hit a wall in the face of facts.
In the past 10 years, China's economic growth has continued to climb uphill: in 2014, its GDP exceeded 60 trillion yuan, in 2017, it exceeded 80 trillion yuan, and in 2020, it will surpass the "milestone" of 100 trillion yuan. Against the backdrop of the impact of the epidemic, China has also exceeded 110 trillion yuan and 120 trillion yuan successively.
The past year is the latest example.
In 2023, China's economy will grow by 5.2%, and the corresponding economic increment will exceed 6 trillion yuan in comparable prices, which would have required a growth rate of more than 10% to achieve it 10 years ago. In vertical comparison, the 5.2% growth rate is faster than the average growth rate of 4.5% in the three years of the epidemic. In a horizontal comparison, it is faster than the 2.5% growth rate of the United States, 0.5% of the eurozone and 1.9% of Japan, and is expected to contribute more than 30% to world economic growth.
The Chinese economy remains an important engine for global growth. According to a recent report on the website of the Spanish "Economist", many people have focused on the slowdown in China's GDP growth, but behind the data there is a more hopeful side: the "Asian giant" is still growing at a rate of about 5% per year, and if this trend continues, China's per capita GDP will increase surprisingly.
"If a super-large economy can sustain medium-high and steady growth, it cannot be labeled as' peaking 'under any circumstances." Chinese Academy of Sciences Science and technology strategic consulting Institute president Pan Jiaofeng representative said.
Reading the Big Picture: Where is China's medium - and long-term growth potential?
Compared with short-term growth, the outside world is more concerned about the medium - and long-term development of China's economy. Some people in the United States and the West claim that "China's economic growth is weak" and "China's prosperity is coming to an end."
The scale of KFC stores in China exceeded 10,000, and Airbus' first aircraft full life cycle service project outside Europe was put into operation in Chengdu... Foreign-funded enterprises have expressed their optimism about the Chinese market with concrete actions.
According to the report of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, about half of the surveyed enterprises will maintain their investment scale in China in 2024, and nearly 40% plan to increase capital in China. According to a survey by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, 59 percent of the companies surveyed see China as one of their top three investment destinations.
Investment usually considers medium - and long-term factors. The trend of foreign investment shows confidence in the medium - and long-term development of the Chinese economy. As John James, chairman and chief executive of Procter & Gamble, said, the challenges in the market are temporary and "the long-term opportunities in China are still there".
In terms of growth alone, compared with the high growth of previous years, China's economic growth has indeed slowed down. As China's economy shifts into a high-quality development channel, it emphasizes the effective improvement of "quality" and reasonable growth of "quantity", no longer "taking GDP as the hero", and the economy has slowed down but not stalled.
Potential growth rate is widely used to analyze and judge the long-term trend of a country's economic development. Research by a number of domestic institutions shows that China's potential growth rate is 5% to 6% at this stage, and stable economic growth has inherent support.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that from the past development history of catch-up economies such as the "four Asian tigers" and high-income countries, when the per capita GDP is between $12,000 and $20,000, the economic development potential continues to be released. At present, the Chinese economy is in a stage of continuous release of growth potential.
"The Chinese economy is in a period of steady recovery and a critical period of structural adjustment, with sufficient internal momentum and great potential for sustained growth. There is no 'peak' of economic growth." Tian Xuan, deputy dean of Tsinghua University's Wudaokou School of Finance, said that the key is to focus on running their own business and effectively respond to risks and challenges.
From the factor conditions that determine the potential growth rate, after years of development and accumulation, China's factor resources are more abundant, providing important support for the Chinese economy to withstand shocks.
China is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the United Nations industrial classification, and the added value of the manufacturing industry accounts for about 30% of the global proportion. It is the world's second largest commodity consumer market and the largest online retail market. The total number of human resources, scientific and technological human resources, and the total number of R&D personnel all rank first in the world...
"Institutional advantage", "demand advantage", "supply advantage" and "talent advantage", the government Work report made an interpretation of China's economic fundamentals, pointing out that "China's development will be long wind and waves, and the future is promising".
"Why do those who argue against the Chinese economy get it wrong again and again? The reason lies in the cognitive bias and misunderstanding of the strong resilience and development law of China's economy." Wang Changlin, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China is a large economy, the socialist system with Chinese characteristics has a unique advantage in coping with major risks and challenges, and the Chinese economy has a strong ability to withstand shocks and self-stabilize and self-repair. In the critical period of China's transition to high-quality development, it is inevitable that we will encounter various problems and challenges, and even experience necessary pains. But the Chinese economy has confidence, advantages and opportunities for development, and the long-term trend will not change.
Unleashing growth potential: Boosting confidence, hard work comes first
During the Spring Festival holiday of the Year of the Dragon, the vitality of China's consumer market blossomed: 474 million domestic tourists traveled, an increase of 19% compared with the same period in 2019, and the Spring Festival movie box office exceeded 8 billion yuan, setting a record for the same period.
Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" website recently titled "Spring Festival consumption Hot China's economy boom?" Citing expert views, the Chinese economy is standing at a turning point in confidence after a year of recovery from the epidemic.
At present, China's economic development does face some difficulties and challenges:
Global economic growth lacks momentum, and the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain. There is insufficient effective domestic demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak public expectations, difficulties for some small and medium-sized enterprises, pressure on total employment and structural problems coexist.
However, the overall judgment is that strategic opportunities and risks and challenges coexist, and favorable conditions for China's economic development are stronger than unfavorable factors.
"The bright future of the Chinese economy is not calculated, but done." Member Zhou Li 'an said that we should firmly seize the favorable opportunity, make good use of favorable conditions, do more things that are conducive to boosting confidence and expectations, and strive to turn development potential into development strength.
Opening the government work report, "vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new quality productivity" is placed at the top of the ten tasks this year.
"This is a key move for the Chinese economy to unleash potential and restore momentum." Representative Xu Guanju, chairman of Chuanhua Group, said that it is necessary to adhere to the real economy as the foundation, take scientific and technological innovation as the core, take industrial upgrading as the direction, accelerate the cultivation of new quality productivity, and inject strong impetus for the high-quality development of China's economy.
Thoroughly implement the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, focus on expanding domestic demand, unswervingly deepen reform, effectively prevent and defuse risks in key areas, and effectively protect and improve people's livelihood... The "construction drawing" of efforts to complete the annual target task is clear.
"We must raise our spirits, do real work and strive to achieve practical results as soon as possible." Yang Dayong, mayor of Baicheng City in Jilin Province, said that it is necessary to focus on the expectations of enterprises and the masses, and promote China's economy to continue to be good, stable and long-term with solid work.