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According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), jointly released data on February 1: In January 2017, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.3%, slightly lower than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points, continuing the steady expansion trend.
From the perspective of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 52.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be higher than the critical point; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.8%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, rising above the critical point; The small business PMI came in at 46.4 percent, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and still in contraction territory. From the sub-index, the production index was 53.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production continued to grow, and the growth rate slowed down slightly. The new orders index was 52.8%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the growth of demand in the manufacturing market has narrowed. In addition, the employment index, raw material inventory index and supplier delivery time index are below the critical point.
China's official manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3 in January, slightly above the median survey forecast of 51.2, but still marking two straight months of declines. The official non-manufacturing business activity index edged up to 54.6 in January from 54.5 in December. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Chen Zhongtao, China Logistics Information Center, believes that "to maintain a stable macroeconomic situation in 2017, we should focus on improving the market environment and improving micro-economic vitality." On the one hand, we should moderately expand aggregate demand and increase business orders; On the other hand, we should promote supply-side reform, reduce the comprehensive cost of enterprises, and improve the profitability of enterprises. Only when micro vitality is increased can we have a solid foundation for macroeconomic stability."
The fundamentals of supply and demand are sound, and the growth trend is balanced. In January, the production index fell, mainly in small enterprises and high energy consumption industries, large and medium-sized enterprises production activities are still active, equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries are not affected by the Spring Festival factors did not fall but rose. In general, reflecting the changes in supply and demand of the production and new orders index, continued to the fourth quarter of last year since the good development trend, not only the level of the index is quite high, and the gap between the two is relatively small, only 0.3 percentage points, reflecting the current supply and demand fundamentals are good, the growth trend is balanced. Business expectations are good, pre-holiday inventory positive. From the survey, the attitude of enterprises is more positive, most enterprises believe that the macro economy will continue to maintain stability in 2017, and the business environment is expected to further improve. From the index point of view, the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities rose, the purchase volume index and the import index rose, indicating that enterprises are more active in stocking up before the holiday. From this point of view, enterprises are expected to resume normal production and operation activities after the holiday. The fundamentals of the industry are sound, and the structural optimization continues to develop. Among the 21 industry categories surveyed, although the PMI index of some industries has declined, there are still 13 industries PMI index remained above 50%. From the point of view of the declining industries, mainly overcapacity, high energy consumption and high pollution industries, due to the acceleration of production capacity, environmental protection efforts, coupled with the impact of the Spring Festival factors, the decline in production and business activities in these industries has its inevitability and rationality. However, the high-tech industry and equipment manufacturing industry maintained the momentum of accelerated development, rising 0.9 and 1.9 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, reaching 52.9% and 55.7%, hitting the highest values in recent years. From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the overall recovery has been maintained, and structural optimization has continued to develop in depth. "The numbers are good," said Iris Pang, senior economist for Greater China at Natixis Asia in Hong Kong. Such a good performance is most likely driven by new manufacturing sectors such as industrial robots and new energy vehicles, she said. Meanwhile, cutting overcapacity in sectors such as coal and steel has also helped. "The clean-up of excess capacity in sectors such as coal and steel is nearing an end," Pang said. "Steel is still going, but coal is done, so the manufacturing data for coal and steel could be positive." The Chinese economy got off to a good start in 2017, maintaining the basic momentum of slow and steady growth. However, the price of upstream products is rising fast, the production cost of enterprises is increasing, the price of finished products is difficult to rise, and the profit space of enterprises is shrinking. China's official manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3 in January, slightly above a median survey forecast of 51.2 but still down for two straight months. In this regard, CFLP special analyst Zhang Liqun pointed out that the manufacturing PMI index fell slightly in January, but the production index continued to remain at a high level of more than 53%, and the industrial operation continued to remain in the boom range. Inventories of finished goods, purchases, imports and other indexes have increased, and the expected index of production and business activities has increased. The official non-manufacturing business activity index edged up to 54.6 in January, up 0.1 from the previous month. In this regard, CAI Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that the business activity index rose slightly in January, running for four consecutive months at more than 54%, the new order index was stable at more than 51%, the excessive rise in input prices has been contained, and the employment index is better than the same period last year.
Growth in the services sector accelerated in January 2017. The business activity index was 53.5 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, wholesale, railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, accommodation, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet and software information technology services, monetary and financial services, insurance, leasing and business services and other industries are located in the higher boom range of more than 55.0%, which is the main industry with steady and rapid growth of the service industry. The business activity index of road transportation, catering, capital market services, real estate, residential services and repair industries is in the contraction range, and the total business has declined. As the growth of manufacturing production slowed, the growth of producer services also narrowed, and the producer services business activity index fell to 53.9%. Overall, the non-manufacturing industry continued to maintain a steady and rapid development trend in the beginning of 2017. A pick-up in services activity was the main driver of this month's solid rise in the non-manufacturing sector. Data from the Bureau of Statistics show that in 2016, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP and the contribution of consumption to economic growth both increased. In 2017, with the enhancement of people's consumption power and the improvement of the consumption environment and the gradual advancement of consumption upgrading, the development momentum of the non-manufacturing industry, especially the service industry, will gradually increase.
From the perspective of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 52.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be higher than the critical point; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.8%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, rising above the critical point; The small business PMI came in at 46.4 percent, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and still in contraction territory. From the sub-index, the production index was 53.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production continued to grow, and the growth rate slowed down slightly. The new orders index was 52.8%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the growth of demand in the manufacturing market has narrowed. In addition, the employment index, raw material inventory index and supplier delivery time index are below the critical point.
China's official manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3 in January, slightly above the median survey forecast of 51.2, but still marking two straight months of declines. The official non-manufacturing business activity index edged up to 54.6 in January from 54.5 in December. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Chen Zhongtao, China Logistics Information Center, believes that "to maintain a stable macroeconomic situation in 2017, we should focus on improving the market environment and improving micro-economic vitality." On the one hand, we should moderately expand aggregate demand and increase business orders; On the other hand, we should promote supply-side reform, reduce the comprehensive cost of enterprises, and improve the profitability of enterprises. Only when micro vitality is increased can we have a solid foundation for macroeconomic stability."
The fundamentals of supply and demand are sound, and the growth trend is balanced. In January, the production index fell, mainly in small enterprises and high energy consumption industries, large and medium-sized enterprises production activities are still active, equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries are not affected by the Spring Festival factors did not fall but rose. In general, reflecting the changes in supply and demand of the production and new orders index, continued to the fourth quarter of last year since the good development trend, not only the level of the index is quite high, and the gap between the two is relatively small, only 0.3 percentage points, reflecting the current supply and demand fundamentals are good, the growth trend is balanced. Business expectations are good, pre-holiday inventory positive. From the survey, the attitude of enterprises is more positive, most enterprises believe that the macro economy will continue to maintain stability in 2017, and the business environment is expected to further improve. From the index point of view, the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities rose, the purchase volume index and the import index rose, indicating that enterprises are more active in stocking up before the holiday. From this point of view, enterprises are expected to resume normal production and operation activities after the holiday. The fundamentals of the industry are sound, and the structural optimization continues to develop. Among the 21 industry categories surveyed, although the PMI index of some industries has declined, there are still 13 industries PMI index remained above 50%. From the point of view of the declining industries, mainly overcapacity, high energy consumption and high pollution industries, due to the acceleration of production capacity, environmental protection efforts, coupled with the impact of the Spring Festival factors, the decline in production and business activities in these industries has its inevitability and rationality. However, the high-tech industry and equipment manufacturing industry maintained the momentum of accelerated development, rising 0.9 and 1.9 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, reaching 52.9% and 55.7%, hitting the highest values in recent years. From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the overall recovery has been maintained, and structural optimization has continued to develop in depth. "The numbers are good," said Iris Pang, senior economist for Greater China at Natixis Asia in Hong Kong. Such a good performance is most likely driven by new manufacturing sectors such as industrial robots and new energy vehicles, she said. Meanwhile, cutting overcapacity in sectors such as coal and steel has also helped. "The clean-up of excess capacity in sectors such as coal and steel is nearing an end," Pang said. "Steel is still going, but coal is done, so the manufacturing data for coal and steel could be positive." The Chinese economy got off to a good start in 2017, maintaining the basic momentum of slow and steady growth. However, the price of upstream products is rising fast, the production cost of enterprises is increasing, the price of finished products is difficult to rise, and the profit space of enterprises is shrinking. China's official manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3 in January, slightly above a median survey forecast of 51.2 but still down for two straight months. In this regard, CFLP special analyst Zhang Liqun pointed out that the manufacturing PMI index fell slightly in January, but the production index continued to remain at a high level of more than 53%, and the industrial operation continued to remain in the boom range. Inventories of finished goods, purchases, imports and other indexes have increased, and the expected index of production and business activities has increased. The official non-manufacturing business activity index edged up to 54.6 in January, up 0.1 from the previous month. In this regard, CAI Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that the business activity index rose slightly in January, running for four consecutive months at more than 54%, the new order index was stable at more than 51%, the excessive rise in input prices has been contained, and the employment index is better than the same period last year.
Growth in the services sector accelerated in January 2017. The business activity index was 53.5 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, wholesale, railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, accommodation, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet and software information technology services, monetary and financial services, insurance, leasing and business services and other industries are located in the higher boom range of more than 55.0%, which is the main industry with steady and rapid growth of the service industry. The business activity index of road transportation, catering, capital market services, real estate, residential services and repair industries is in the contraction range, and the total business has declined. As the growth of manufacturing production slowed, the growth of producer services also narrowed, and the producer services business activity index fell to 53.9%. Overall, the non-manufacturing industry continued to maintain a steady and rapid development trend in the beginning of 2017. A pick-up in services activity was the main driver of this month's solid rise in the non-manufacturing sector. Data from the Bureau of Statistics show that in 2016, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP and the contribution of consumption to economic growth both increased. In 2017, with the enhancement of people's consumption power and the improvement of the consumption environment and the gradual advancement of consumption upgrading, the development momentum of the non-manufacturing industry, especially the service industry, will gradually increase.