On September 20, the central price of the RMB was 7.0644, up 339 points, appreciating to the highest since May 29, 2023, and the largest increase since March 20, 2023! The midprice last traded at 7.0983. Markets cheered after the Federal Reserve this week cut interest rates for the first time in nearly four and a half years. On Thursday, the S&P 500 index hit another record high, indicating that the Fed's decision gave the market a big confidence boost. For Wall Street, in addition to the surprise of a 50 basis point rate cut, the Fed's dot plot also gave them a positive signal.

On September 13, the United States time, the Office of the United States Trade Representative issued a notice on the final measures of the 301 tariffs on China, announcing that it will increase the 301 tariffs on some Chinese goods. China is strongly dissatisfied with and firmly opposed to this. The Chinese side has repeatedly lodged solemn representations with the US side on the 301 tariff issue. The WTO has already ruled that the 301 tariffs violate WTO rules. Instead of correcting them, the US has further increased its tariffs on China, which is only adding to its mistakes.

According to a new analysis by Alphaliner, the Port of Singapore, the world's largest transit hub, is one of the clear winners in the upcoming alliance realignment. In February 2025, a new shipping alliance pattern will be formed. THE Ocean Alliance, The Alliance and 2M Alliance will be reorganized into the Gemini Partnership, the Premier Alliance, the independently operated MSC and the unchanged Ocean Alliance, respectively, which will begin to operate a new service network. According to an analysis of the new port rotation plan, the Port of Singapore will receive an additional six call opportunities from operators of Asia-Northern Europe routes.

BofA Global Research raised its forecast for the Fed's rate cuts for the rest of the year to 75 basis points, after the central bank launched a widely expected move on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a larger-than-usual 50 percentage points. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the move was intended to show policymakers' commitment to keeping unemployment low now that inflation has eased. Bofa said in a note that it now expects the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points in the fourth quarter, compared with its previous forecast of two quarter-point cuts at the November and December meetings.

The Bank of France released a report on September 17 local time, predicting that France's real GDP will grow by 1.1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. The harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) is expected to rise by 2.5% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025.

Waiting for more evidence that inflationary pressures are subsiding, the Bank of England held interest rates steady on Thursday, deciding not to cut them for a second month in a row and warning investors that it will not ease policy in a hurry. The monetary policy committee voted 8-1 to keep rates at 5 per cent, a result that contrasted sharply with Wednesday's 0.5 percentage point cut in US interest rates. The decision was in line with economists' and investors' expectations, but still pushed the pound to its highest level against the dollar since March 2022.

Foreign exchange dynamics [RMB] CITIC Securities: The probability of the RMB exchange rate trend breaking through 7.0 is not large. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bps, both onshore and offshore yuan strengthened to 7.06 against the US dollar in intraday trading on September 19. It is expected that in the future, the centralized settlement of foreign exchange by export enterprises may increase short-term exchange rate fluctuations.

On September 12, 2024, The United States International Trade Commission (ITC) voted to make a second anti-dumping and countervailing sunset review of industrial injury in Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells and Modules imported from China (whether or not assembled into modules) : Finding that if the existing anti-dumping and countervailing measures are removed, the material injury to the domestic industry caused by imports of the products in question is likely to continue or recur within a reasonably foreseeable period. According to the final ruling, the existing anti-dumping and countervailing measures in this case continue to be effective.

On September 19, the mid-price of the yuan was 7.0983, down 113 points from 7.0870 in the previous trading day. Agreed! The US Federal Reserve Board ended a two-day monetary policy meeting on the 18th local time, announcing that the target range of the federal funds rate was lowered to 4.75% to 5%, that is, a cut of 50 basis points, which is the first rate cut since 2020. Historically, unless faced with a major economic crisis, the Federal Reserve has rarely cut interest rates by 50 basis points when opening a new rate cut cycle.

In the first half of 2024, the international shipping market experienced unprecedented volatility, which was reflected in the tense situation of "difficult to find one cabin" and the extreme phenomenon of "sky-high freight".