On June 18, the central parity rate of the yuan was 7.1148, up 1 point from 7.1149 in the previous trading day. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that based on current forecasts, he thinks one rate cut this year is appropriate and wants to see more data progress. Speaking at a business event that day, Harker noted that there were indeed some "bumps" in the inflation trend at the start of the year, and that the recent inflation report showing a decline in the consumer price index (CPI) in May was "very welcome" and evidence that progress against inflation, while slow, is thankfully not "dead.

Last week, there were more fundamental events in the United States, and the concerned Federal Reserve interest rate resolution continued to remain unchanged, Powell said that "inflation has slowed down, but it is still too high, not enough to give confidence in interest rate cuts," the overall view is still transmitted the strategy of continuing to wait and see, affected by this, the dollar index again showed a rebound trend, the highest to 105.80. In addition, May CPI growth of 3.3%, compared with the previous value and market expectations of 3.4% slightly down, followed by the core CPI growth rate fell to the lowest in more than three years, this shows that housing costs are still the biggest drag on the downward inflation, although the decline in energy prices led to a slowdown in inflation, but not enough to prove

Eurozone economic data last week was weak, after the first interest rate cut, the future monetary policy that the market is concerned about needs to refer to important economic indicators to make a new assessment. This Friday will be released in June manufacturing, services PMI, the market is expected to rise from the previous value of 47.3 to 47.9, the service industry will rise from the previous value of 53.2 to 53.5, comprehensive observation of the overall data are expected to rebound, and then in the short term or will support the euro against the dollar, but last week the dollar index is strong, leading to a unilateral downward trend in the euro against the dollar. As low as 1.0667, the short-term observation of the high probability of the exchange rate will maintain weak volatility on the basis of the further strong operation of the US index, focusing on the low last week

Daily rental $100,000 for reproduction; Small and medium-sized ships have also taken a share of the pie, returning to the United States, Europe and other long-distance routes. Shipping giants have recently been active in the charter market, chartering ships at high prices to earn profits from high freight rates. The French shipping company CMA CGM recently leased a new 7,000 TEU vessel for three months at a daily rent of up to $105,000, and the owner is rumored to be Desxiang Shipping. This rental level is seen by the industry as returning to the $100,000 level for the first time since 2022, indicating a strong recovery in the shipping market. The industry's interpretation of this includes the following points: shipping companies grab high profits: shipping companies through high rents, short leases

On June 12, 2024 local time, the U.S. Department of State and the Department of Treasury OFAC issued an announcement imposing sanctions on more than 300 individuals and entities, including 41 Chinese enterprises (33 OFAC sanctions, 8 State Department sanctions) and 5 individuals. In addition, Reuters reported that the G7 leaders at the meeting will issue a clear warning to small Chinese banks to stop them from helping Russia evade Western trade sanctions. While no specific action will be taken at the meeting, the warning against small Chinese banks is the first of its kind and reflects Western fatigue with the close ties between China and Russia. Reuters

The overall performance of price and financial data last week was weak, and consumer demand and entities still need further guidance from policies. May CPI growth of 0.3%, less than expected 0.4%, the same as the previous value, of which food fell significantly, drag data, although in the "May Day holiday" did not form a strong stimulus trend at the consumer end, the short and medium term core consumer demand is still weak; PPI fell 1.4% year-on-year, down 2.5% from the previous value, the decline narrowed, non-ferrous metal prices and new energy demand to promote the recovery of domestic related industry prices. In addition, in terms of credit, the new loans of enterprises and residents are at a low level in the same period in history. It can be seen that short-term economic conditions depend on

On June 17, the central parity rate of the yuan was 7.1149, up 2 points from 7.1151 in the previous trading day. CME "Fed Watch" : The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in August is 87.6 percent, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 12.4 percent.

The situation in the Red Sea has recently become more chaotic. In just a few days, the Houthi armed forces attacked nearly 10 ships, causing fire and damage to the ships and injured and missing crew members. Following the attack by Houthi forces on the cargo ship TUTOR (IMO: 9942627) on the evening of the 12th.

On June 14, the central parity rate of the yuan was 7.1151, down 29 points from 7.1122 in the previous trading day. After Federal Reserve policymakers this week projected only one rate cut this year, UBS economists pushed back their forecast for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to December. Ubs had expected September.

Spot freight rates continued to surge this week, raising deep concerns among shippers about how much freight rates could rise. However, as for the exact upper limit of freight, no one can give a firm forecast at present. Market analysis generally believes that freight rates will continue to increase until enough shippers transport less cargo due to high freight rates, so as to achieve a balance between container demand and ship capacity. But the exact threshold of this equilibrium point remains unknown. According to Sea-Intelligence analysis, to predict the likely increase in freight rates, reference can be made to the peak level during the pandemic.