Industrial products rising momentum is insufficient to prevent the emergence of cold spring market

Last week, commodity markets fluctuated from daily limit to daily limit. The hot real estate market pulled steel building materials and chemicals to rebound sharply, under the influence of many factors, the China Futures Market monitoring Center industrial futures index continued to rise last week. From the week of March 11, the CIFI index rose at the beginning of the week, rose and fell after the shock. On March 11, the CIFI index closed at 669.22 points, the highest of the week rose to 690.20, the lowest of 657.67, and the whole week rose by 1.39%. From the trend of the index, the CIFI index fell to the five-day average, the weekly line closed in the long upper line, and there is upward pressure.

In the week of March 11, the varieties of black industry chain futures were still relatively strong, and the varieties leading the increase were iron ore, methanol, rebar, coke and so on. Among them, iron ore rose by 10.05%, far ahead, followed by methanol, rebar and coke rose by more than 5%. Several chemical varieties such as plastics, asphalt and polypropylene bucked the downward trend, and plastics were relatively weak, falling by 2.73%, along with non-ferrous zinc, nickel and aluminum.

International oil prices rose in the early stage to weaken the downstream wait-and-see sentiment, winter storage demand has been strengthened, but South China, East China refinery still have inventory pressure, and the price of imported asphalt is low, is expected to be stable in the short term market, individual refineries in the north may have a small rise. Last week, the main asphalt 1606 fell for three consecutive days, but with the bottom of the spot market, the futures price has basically reached the bottom, and the recent adjustment can still be appropriate for dips.

Driven by factors such as the maintenance of relatively loose global liquidity, strong expectations of economic stabilization, and China's supply-side reform to promote "capacity reduction", the supply and demand relationship between commodities is expected to improve, and more capital allocation is obtained. At present, the commodity market as a whole is in a spring state, but whether spring is coming depends on the terminal demand. After the previous consecutive rebound, industrial products lack of momentum, beware of the reverse cold market. In the short term, CIFI or dependent on the five-day moving average shock consolidation.