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NATO eastward expansion

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International political events

NATO's eastward expansion means the former Soviet republics and Central and Eastern Europe The country joins NATO, which is Cold war after Europe The inevitable outcome of the period of strategic pattern change. Shortly after the Cold War, Central and Eastern European countries and former The Soviet Union The republics of the United States are ringing one after another North Atlantic Treaty Organization The door, apply for formal membership North Atlantic Treaty Organization .

In March 1999, Czech Republic , Hungary and Poland Join NATO. In March 2004 Slovakia , Bulgaria , Romania , Slovenia , and Baltic Sea Littoral state Estonia , Latvia and Republic of Lithuania And seven other countries became full members of NATO. The membership of the organization has also increased from 19 to 26. ^[1]

On February 21, 2022, President of Russia Vladimir Putin In a speech to the nation, the continuous eastward expansion of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization, completely ignoring Russia's security concerns, is the cause of the security crisis in Europe. ^[5]

On 27 February 2024, Sweden joined NATO, becoming the 32nd member of the alliance ^[10] .

Chinese name: NATO eastward expansion
Foreign name: NATO enlargement
Field interaction: NATO summit in Brussels
Direct purpose: Fill the security vacuum in Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union

nature: International political events
Major country: Russia NATO
meaning: It will affect the entire international landscape
Fundamental purpose: Totally crush Russia
Occurrence time: In March 1993

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5countermeasures

Event background

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EDITOR

The US-Russia contest

The eastward expansion of NATO is the inevitable outcome of the transformation of the European strategic pattern after the Cold War, and its reasons are complicated, including the hegemonic factors of big countries and the "protective umbrella" factors of small countries. There are factors such as unbalanced economic development, nationalism and religious belief.

在北约轰炸中国驻南联盟使馆事件中遇难的三位中国烈士^[9]

First of all, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact was a key reason for NATO's eastward expansion. In July 1991, the Warsaw Pact, formed during the Cold War, was dissolved The Yalta system The Warsaw Pact, led by the Soviet Union, fell apart, and the Soviet Union itself was divided into a dozen independent countries, and the strategic pattern of the European region and even the world began to be greatly differentiated and adjusted. The countries of Eastern Europe remained dissociated, while the former Soviet Union states were formed Commonwealth of Independent States However, the form is scattered, the mechanism is incomplete, and the strength is weak. After independence, Russia, the largest successor state of the former Soviet Union, in order to cater to the West and obtain economic assistance from the West, pursued the "Western" policy. predominate The foreign policy, which shrank from Eastern Europe, distanced itself from the countries of the region. As a result, the balance of power in Europe is seriously out of balance in terms of security, and there is a so-called "power vacuum" in Eastern Europe. In response to this situation, various forces have launched a fierce competition for the future dominance of European security, and NATO's eastward expansion is the product of this competition.

Before expansion

Secondly, in order to maintain its hegemonic status, the United States strongly advocates the eastward expansion of NATO. For more than 40 years, the United States has been self-regarded as the Western leader, single-handed formation and control of NATO, its purpose is to prevent the expansion of Soviet influence, as far as possible to the West's military power and even Western ideology to the east. After the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, the United States believed that there was no longer a "disaster empire" and no longer existed the ideological divide that divided Europe Berlin Wall Has been toppled, the largest successor state of the former Soviet Union Russia They are busy dealing with their own internal problems, and this is a good time to expand the achievements of the Cold War victory and step up the building of a unipolar world. Therefore, the United States has pushed to attract Eastern European countries into NATO and bring them into the Western geopolitical sphere as quickly as possible. In this way, NATO can expand its base of existence, strengthen its position within the alliance, and play a role in containing the European Union and exerting influence in the region. In addition, it can further weaken Russia's power, contain Russia's re-emergence, and prevent Russia from posing a threat to the West again.

After eastward expansion

Third, European regional interests drive NATO eastward expansion. For many centuries, the dominant countries in the world were in Europe, but Europe experienced two world wars between 1914 and 1945, which not only weakened the strength of the major European countries, but also divided the whole Europe. After World War II, the situation in Europe has been dominated by NATO and the Warsaw Pact Group, and Western European countries, out of the need of strategic interests, often give in to the United States in international affairs. Eastern European countries were under the control of the former Soviet Union. The end of the Cold War also meant the end of the division of Europe, the reunification of West and East Germany, and the reunification of Germany and East Germany Poland Reconciliation, partnerships for peace have been established, and a whole Europe is emerging. In terms of security, Western European countries have basically eliminated all kinds of concerns formed during the Cold War period. Western European countries, mainly France, no longer blindly obey the will of the United States, trying to enhance their autonomy and dominate the destiny of Europe by themselves. They increasingly attach importance to strengthening the construction of the European Union, compete to absorb Eastern European countries to join them, expand their influence, and try to strengthen the power of Europe politically, economically and militarily. In order to exclude the United States. A Western European diplomat said: "If the European countries are united, we will not be weaker than the United States, through NATO enlargement, we have proved a useful thing to countries outside the member states."

Moreover, Eastern European countries themselves are pressing for NATO membership. After the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact, many contradictions under the cover of the bipolar pattern have become increasingly apparent. The outbreak of the former Yugoslavia crisis and the emergence of ethnic and regional conflicts in the former Soviet Union show that Europe has become an international conflict zone under the new situation, and ethnic, religious and economic confrontations have occurred in Eastern European countries from time to time. In addition, Russia has adjusted its foreign strategy and attempted to re-emerge on the international stage as a major power, which has caused panic in Eastern European countries. In order to ensure their independence and security, Eastern European countries began to take the initiative to turn to NATO and apply to join NATO, hoping to get the security guarantee provided by NATO. ^[2]

Course of event

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EDITOR

NATO eastward expansion

In July 1990, the 11th NATO Summit was announced in London Cold war That's it.

In December 1991, NATO decided at the Rome Summit to establish the North Atlantic Cooperation Council with some Central and Eastern European countries.

In December 1991, NATO was the first alliance formed by NATO countries, former Warsaw Pact countries, The Commonwealth of Independent States and The three Baltic States The North Atlantic Cooperation Council.

Since 1992, Poland and other Eastern European countries have asked to join NATO. In the same year, NATO approved a principle allowing its troops to leave the territory of member countries to participate in peacekeeping operations elsewhere. By the end of the year, NATO had decided to intervene militarily in the Yugoslav crisis.

In January 1994, the NATO Brussels Summit adopted the "Partnership for Peace" plan with Central and Eastern European countries and Russia, and began sending peacekeeping troops to Bosnia and Herzegovina in December.

In September 1996, NATO published the Study Report on its Eastward Expansion Plan.

In May 1997, the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council was formally established to replace the North Atlantic Cooperation Council and to strengthen security relations between NATO and non-NATO members in Europe and Eurasia.

In July 1997, the Madrid Summit decided to admit Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary into NATO.

Accepted in 1999 Poland , Hungary , Czech Republic The three countries are new members of NATO. From April 23 to 25, the heads of state and government of the 19 NATO member states and the "Partnership for Peace" held a summit in Washington to celebrate NATO's 50th anniversary. Russia and Belarus protested against NATO bombing Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Refused to attend the meeting. The meeting discussed the situation in Kosovo and adopted and issued documents such as the Declaration on Kosovo, the Washington Declaration and the NATO Strategic Concept.

On 21 November 2002, the NATO Summit in Prague reached a decision on the second wave of eastward expansion and decided to accept it Estonia , Latvia , Republic of Lithuania , Slovakia , Slovenia , Romania and Bulgaria Seven countries joined NATO. This is the largest expansion of NATO since its founding in 1949. In March 2004, these seven countries formally submitted their respective legal texts of accession to NATO, thus becoming new members of NATO, expanding the membership of NATO from 19 in the early 2000s to 26. This round of enlargement is the second eastward enlargement of NATO. ^[6]

In April 2009, Albania And Croatia officially joined NATO, bringing the total number of member states to 28 and marking the third round of NATO's eastward expansion. Before this round of enlargement, NATO had already listed Ukraine as a "NATO candidate country". In 2008, the outbreak of the South Ossetia incident in Georgia and the political unrest in Ukraine made Ukraine's "accession" plan temporarily stranded. ^[6]

On December 17, 2021, the Kremlin announced a "red line" in the draft security agreement between NATO and the United States: the deployment of military forces on both sides will be returned to the status quo of May 27, 1997 (the basic document on Russia-NATO relations was signed on that day). NATO pledged to halt expansion and not engage in any military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia. Russian presidential press Secretary Dmitry Peskov reiterated Moscow's position on NATO's eastward expansion in a more direct manner on a program a few days later: For Russia, NATO's eastward expansion to Ukraine and other former Soviet republics is a "matter of life and death" and completely unacceptable. ^[6]

In a video address to the nation on February 21, 2022, Putin stressed that NATO is constantly trying to convince Russia that NATO is a purely defensive alliance, but five times in the history of enlargement to the east have led to the deployment of NATO military facilities in the immediate area of the Russian border. The Americans are using Ukraine to pursue anti-Russian policies. Ukraine's membership in NATO is a direct threat to Russia's national security. Earlier, Putin said at his annual press conference that NATO's eastward expansion was unacceptable ^[4-5] . On February 24, in an emergency televised address on the situation in Ukraine, Putin said he had decided to carry out a special military operation in the Donbass region. Putin said Russia had no plans to "invade" Ukraine and was committed to de-escalating the situation there. In view of the continuous eastward expansion of NATO, Russia's security environment is deteriorating, Russia has to make this decision. ^[7]

At 10:00 a.m. local time on May 12, 2022, the President of Finland Sauli Niinisto And premier Sanna Marin Issued a joint statement formally declaring support for Finland's bid to join NATO. ^[8]

Social evaluation

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EDITOR

NATO's eastward expansion has not only squeezed Russia, but also worsened China's overall international environment. NATO's eastward expansion has greatly enhanced its own strength, and in the future, its strength may extend to the Chinese border, linking up with the Japanese and American defense system, and rapidly advancing and strengthening the strategic encirclement posture of the United States against China, posing huge pressure on China. NATO's eastward expansion has in fact promoted and strengthened the strategic containment circle against China. Some scholars have pointed out that if Russia withstands the expansion of NATO to the former Soviet republics, and China takes advantage of the time when Russia needs support the most, the result may be not only to consolidate China's position in the world pattern, but also to further improve China's position in the strategic triangle between China, the United States and Russia. Other scholars have pointed out that after joining NATO, the central and Eastern European countries will become more Western in ideology, and in order to show their Western position, they may deliberately highlight their Westernization in ideology, which will bring these countries into conflict with China on human rights issues and the Tibet issue. On the Taiwan issue, if China explicitly supports Russia in NATO's eastward expansion, then these countries may further develop relations with Taiwan after joining NATO. ^[1]

Major influence

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EDITOR

Russia

NATO eastward expansion

The eastward expansion of NATO has at least three adverse effects on Russia.

First of all, it brings about a major change in the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe and poses a great threat to Russia's security interests. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Sergei Yakovenko said NATO's eastward expansion would affect Russia's political, military and economic interests, forcing Moscow to take the issue "extremely seriously." The accession of the three Baltic countries to NATO exposes Russia's northwestern border to NATO. In the south, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey formed against Russia The Black Sea Military and political encirclement along the coast. Kyulet Moscow Disturbingly, because the three Baltic countries are not members of the Treaty on Conventional Arms in Europe, NATO can deploy troops on the territory of these countries at will, making Europe appear a "gray area".

NATO eastward expansion

Secondly, the eastward expansion of NATO is an important step for the United States to implement the strategy of controlling the Eurasian continent, which will further complicate the relations between Russia and the United States and Russia and Europe. In recent years, the United States has stepped up its expansion and penetration into Russia's traditional interest area - the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the large-scale eastward expansion of NATO has made Russia feel the pressure from the United States to compete for strategic space, which has cast a new shadow on Russia-US relations. The U.S. ambassador to NATO says the expansion is the most important event in the alliance's 55-year history and will help change the map of Europe and shift the alliance's center eastward. The purpose of NATO's eastward expansion was clearly articulated.

Third, the political-military situation in the CIS has become more severe, and Russia's traditional interests in the region are in danger of being further weakened. The new round of eastward expansion not only strengthens the strength of NATO, but also provides powerful conditions for the expansion of the United States into the CIS. After winning in Central Asia, the United States has in recent years used aid as bait to attract other CIS countries, in order to achieve the dual purpose of controlling this strategic region and limiting Russia. There is a significant centrifugal tendency in the CIS.

International influence

NATO member

The international influence of NATO's eastward expansion is far-reaching and extensive, which is both realistic and uncertain. Many politicians and military theorists in the world have analyzed and inferred this. For example, there is a view that NATO's eastward expansion is a continuation of the Cold War and will only increase tensions. Because the eastward expansion has irrationally aroused Russia's fear of being encircled, it will not stand idly by to NATO's eastward expansion and can only take corresponding measures, such as strengthening the alliance with China and restructuring the nuclear force. Another view is that NATO's eastward expansion will deprive the United States of its uniqueness superpower The world will become more multipolar. For EU countries, it is possible to grudgingly accept US intentions based on security interests, but there will be a greater contradiction in economic interests, so that countries will not be willing to accept such an imperial policy of the United States in the long run. Others believe that NATO's eastward expansion will make the breakup of CIS irreversible, and there will be a "civilized divorce" in CIS. There are even arguments that NATO expansion will keep an increasingly powerful Germany in its place, and so on.

But realistically, the international impact of NATO's eastward expansion has at least the following three aspects: First, European integration The process will speed up, European Union The power of the EU will grow, and the role of the EU in international affairs will grow. At the same time, there will be more and more contradictions between the EU and the United States, the distance between the EU and the United States will be widened, the nature and functions of NATO will change, at least to change the traditional image and color left over from the Cold War period, and the fate of Europe will be dominated by Europeans themselves. This trend has slowly become a reality, such as the increasing economic strength of Europe, Euro The issue and launch of the European Union's major countries on the situation in the Middle East and so on. Second, Russia will reinvent itself, change its domestic and foreign policies, and find a way out for national security and economic development. Russia has been seeking the initiative in NATO's eastward expansion in a passive way, changing its domestic leaders frequently, adjusting its foreign policy, and winning external support. In military terms, redeployment, the formation of a new army, a new emphasis on the role of nuclear forces, slow down the pace of nuclear disarmament, etc., in order to obtain bargaining chips. In the economy, the use of traditional economic dependence, the implementation of the policy of opening up, attracting foreign investment, in order to achieve economic re-emergence. Politically, it supports the establishment of a multipolar world pattern and strives to enhance its influence and status in the international arena. President of Russia Boris Yeltsin During a visit to Italy in February 1998, he said: "History has proved that attempts to establish world hegemony can never last long, and the trend towards a multipolar world is already under way today." Third, at a given time, US intervention in international affairs will become increasingly visible. After the Cold War, the United States lost its former opponent and became the only superpower in the world, and the eastward expansion of NATO greatly expanded its military sphere of influence, so that its imperial hegemonic thinking was increasing day by day.

In short, NATO's eastward expansion is a major event affecting the international situation, and it is still in progress, there are many uncertainties, therefore, we should pay close attention to the development of the actual situation, change with the change of the situation, and determine our corresponding strategy. ^[3]

countermeasures

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EDITOR

In the face of the aggressive offensive posture of the United States and NATO, Russia is actively looking for countermeasures.

① Manage relations with NATO skillfully

NATO eastward expansion

In the face of NATO's eastward expansion, Russia has adopted a policy of symbolic resistance and strategic proximity. In the face of NATO's new round of eastward expansion, Russia's News Times published an article saying that "Russia has no way to retreat anymore." Foreign Ministry spokesman Sergei Yakovenko said in a statement that NATO's eastward expansion will affect Russia's political, military and economic interests, forcing Russia to take the issue "extremely seriously." Russia's "serious" attitude, however, is as much symbolic as strategic.

First, national interests dictate that Russia's resistance to NATO enlargement is only symbolic. Former Prime Ministers of Russia Primakov He said: "When it comes to NATO expansion, there are two 'red lines' that must not be crossed... The cross line is that the membership of the Baltic states and other former Soviet republics in NATO is unacceptable to us." In connection with Putin's series of statements on the issue of NATO's eastward expansion, one can't help but think that Putin The resistance to NATO's eastward expansion is only symbolic, only verbal, not tough measures, but a political presentation to the domestic public. As a mature statesman Putin's symbolic resistance to NATO's eastward expansion is mainly due to the following considerations: First, the NATO at this time is different from the NATO at that time. Second, Putin has a rational judgment of Russia's comprehensive national strength, "comfortable in Russia's current position, no longer have the illusion of a superpower." At present, Russia's primary national interest is economic. On the one hand, the realization of economic benefits cannot be separated from the "many sources" of the West; On the other hand, Russia must spend a long time focusing on solving many of the old problems of the domestic economy, and resisting NATO enlargement will undoubtedly sacrifice Russia's economic interests.

NATO eastward expansion

Second, move strategically closer to NATO. With Putin in power, no country can truly pose a threat to Russia, given its Eurasian location, military power, and thousands of nuclear weapons. Therefore, rather than confrontation and competition with NATO, it is better to improve and develop relations with NATO, because this can not only obtain a peaceful environment, but also obtain funds and technical assistance from Western countries, which is not only conducive to domestic economic development, but also conducive to restoring and improving Russia's status as a major power. As a result, the status of Europe in Russia's foreign policy has been raised to the first place outside the CIS, which has greatly deepened Russia-Europe relations. In view of this, Putin began to abandon the blindly hard top approach, to retreat to join NATO, and to defuse the threat posed to Russia by its eastward expansion from within.

After 9/11, the world strategic landscape has undergone major changes. terrorism Became the common enemy of all countries in the world. Putin has wisely seized this opportunity to proactively and actively improve and develop relations with the United States and other NATO countries. Politically, he expressed strong support for the war on terror waged by the United States and Britain. Militarily, technically, he provided intelligence to the United States and allowed it to use bases in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. On Putin's above performance, US President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Blair Deeply moved, in order to "thank" and "reward" Russia, they made several speeches, saying that they would take measures to strengthen and close cooperation between NATO and Russia. In October 2001, Putin visited Brussels During talks with NATO Secretary General Robert Robertson, the two sides agreed to establish a working body to take Russia-NATO relations to a new level. On November 16, 2001, British Prime Minister Tony Blair proposed the creation of a new body, the North Atlantic-Russia Council, to replace the old "19 + 1" mechanism with a "20" mechanism. After the establishment of the "20" mechanism, the relations between Russia and NATO have undergone major changes, and the cooperation areas and levels of the two sides have been greatly improved. However, to Russia's puzzlement, the process of NATO's eastward expansion has not stopped.

Why is Russia taking NATO's hand? Critics say the increased cooperation between NATO and Russia is mutually beneficial. Moving closer to NATO, Russia can share the leadership of European and world security affairs with NATO, and get more economic and technical assistance, and strive for European and American countries, especially European countries, to reduce Russia's huge debt; NATO's improved relations with Russia can draw Russia together in the fight against terrorism, soften Russia's opposition to NATO's eastward expansion, and place high hopes on the Russian market. From this point of view, whether Russia's concession to NATO is a trial run or a strategic shift, I am afraid that both East and West cannot easily conclude.

② Accelerate the pace of domestic development and strengthen their own strength

NATO eastward expansion

Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that to restore Russia's great power status and increase its weight on the international stage, the first task is to accelerate economic development and strengthen its own economic strength. Therefore, in recent years, under the leadership of Putin, the Russian government has taken a series of measures to accelerate economic development: First, accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises and establish a new market competition mechanism, which is the "bottleneck" of institutional reform. Second, reform the government management system to improve transparency and efficiency of government administration. "If the authority is discredited, the country will have no bread to eat tomorrow," Putin said, "It is clear that in order to develop the economy effectively, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of the state administration, so ensuring that the authority and its decision-making process are more transparent is an extremely important reform."

Thirdly, improving the living standards of residents and pursuing coordinated economic and social development are the highest goals pursued by the government. Maintaining comprehensive economic and social development is the starting point and fundamental purpose of reform and development, and if the people do not get benefits, reform and development will not succeed. Putin especially emphasized and committed to let the majority of the people benefit from the reform, so that the people's living standards are effectively improved and the serious injustice of social distribution is eliminated. As the domestic reform and development policy was supported by the overwhelming majority of the people, in the 12 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian economy declined sharply for 7 consecutive years from 1992 to 1998, and entered the stage of rapid recovery and recovery for 5 consecutive years since 1999. In the past five years, the Russian government has significantly improved people's living standards by repeatedly raising wages, pensions and subsidies for residents below the poverty line. In 2003, the real income of residents increased by twice the GDP growth rate.

Emphasize the role of nuclear weapons and enhance military deterrence

Russian Defense Minister Ivanov pointed out that due to the eastward expansion of NATO, Russia may revise its military doctrine, which has two implications. The first is to emphasize the role of nuclear weapons. The 2000 Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation states that nuclear weapons are "the most reliable instrument for the protection of military security" and that they can be used "in a limited or comprehensive manner" in the event of serious threats to the security of Russia and its Allies and aggression. In early 2004, the Russian Defense Minister Ivanov Because the level of equipment is not high, the conventional forces of the Russian army can not compete with NATO, so nuclear weapons will remain an effective strategic deterrent for Russia in the coming period. Second, we do not rule out the use of "pre-emptive" means. On April 7, 2004, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov published an article in the New York Times, expressing concern about the "hasty" eastward expansion of NATO, and warning that if the strategic principle of preemption by the United States really becomes the prevailing rule in dealing with international affairs, Russia will have no choice but to adapt to reality and take action to ensure its national interests. "If the deployment of NATO military infrastructure in the Baltic states becomes a threat to Russia, Russia will take countermeasures."

Develop new weapons and speed up the modernization of the armed forces

Since the United States unilaterally announced its withdrawal from the anti-missile treaty in 2001, Russia has actively sought weapons to break through the U.S. missile defense system. On March 30, 2004, Russia's Interfax news agency quoted a senior defense Ministry official as saying that Russia had successfully developed a "revolutionary" weapon that could easily overcome the U.S. missile defense system. The official, who asked not to be named, said the new weapon was tested during Russian military exercises in February and the results were satisfactory. If this new weapon is deployed, America's elaborate missile defence system will be rendered useless. Best of all, the weapon is inexpensive. According to military experts, it is a new type of "mobile ballistic missile" or "hypersonic cruise missile" that can be launched directly from an aircraft and is capable of flying between outer space and the Earth's atmosphere.

Intriguingly, the official revealed the new weapons on the same day that seven new members formally joined NATO. Russia announced the successful development of new weapons at this time, on the one hand, to show the world that Russia is still a force to be reckoned with in the world; On the other hand, news of the new weapons might keep their minds from getting too unbalanced.

Strengthen cooperation and exchanges with the CIS countries and consolidate Russia's influence and position in the CIS

NATO's new round of eastward expansion has not only enhanced its strength, but also provided favorable conditions for the United States to further penetrate into the CIS countries. As the United States continues to lure other CIS countries with aid, some countries have courted the United States. Uzbekistan To grant temporary stationing of U.S. mobile forces in their country; Ukraine recently announced that it would allow NATO troops into its territory if necessary; Belarus's foreign minister also said it would review relations with the United States. Therefore, it has become an increasingly urgent strategic task for Russia to pacify Ukraine, Belarus and other CIS countries, stabilize the surrounding situation and create a peaceful environment. Russia has made every effort to promote bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation among the CIS countries, to strengthen the security and defence of the CIS within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and to strengthen and consolidate its influence and position in the CIS by taking advantage of the immediate problems facing the CIS countries.

Strengthen ties with the European Union as a strategic fulcrum to neutralize the NATO threat

Due to the differences and contradictions between Europe and the United States in the international order, geopolitical and economic and trade interests, as well as the independent defense of the EU, Russia will make full use of the EU's demand for an international status commensurate with its strength and its differences with the United States to strengthen cooperation and coordination with the EU in various fields. Check the unilateral attempts of the United States to seek hegemony and the pressure of NATO.

On the issue of NATO eastward expansion, the EU has different feelings, and the future positioning of NATO, the EU is in a dilemma. First of all, France, Germany and other countries are not optimistic about the development of EU-US relations today. Through the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, traditional European powers such as France and Germany increasingly realized that US support for European integration was conditional on US dominance in the Atlantic alliance. The United States never wanted Western Europe to be on an equal footing with it, much less on its own. A senior French official said: "The war in Iraq did not create a rift between the United States and France, but only exposed the differences that had been hidden for years and deepened after the collapse of the Soviet Union." Russia is the key factor in the tussle between the US and Europe. Because of the geographical and economic ties, coupled with historical and cultural closeness, the development of EU-Russia relations is clearly stronger than that of the United States. Second, European Allies in NATO are also eager to establish a new security mechanism with Russia that reduces the pressure of military threats. Russia's powerful strategic nuclear Arsenal has always been a security concern for its European Allies. Western European countries are more active than the United States in advocating the establishment of a new cooperation mechanism with Russia. If Russia's opposition to the eastward expansion of NATO is not appeasement, the relations between Russia and NATO will be strained, and the European countries in NATO will bear the brunt of the damage. British Prime Minister Tony Blair hinted at giving Russia some veto power in the new mechanism, reflecting the willingness of European Allies to offer greater concessions in return for Russia's integration with the West.

In addition, Russia will rely on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, develop strategic partnerships with China, India and other eastern powers, and actively carry out dialogue with ASEAN to contain NATO's actions and eliminate pressure from NATO's eastward expansion and the United States. ^[3]

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